Effectiveness Analysis for Wide Area Search Munitions

environment, but there are also challenges associated with Abstract predicting the effectiveness of these munitions for a wide range of mission scenarios. The single shot Pk numbers The problem of estimating effectiveness of associated with most direct attack munitions are not directly autonomous wide area search munitions will be considered, applicable to wide area search munitions because they do Due to the large potential search area of these munitions, not account for the difficulty of searching over tens of terms such as single shot Pk are not adequate for evaluating square kilometers in order to find a target of interest. Terms expected success rates. Methods and models must take into such as False Alarm Rate (FAR), often associated with account degradation due to false target attacks, and missed surveillance or search systems, are insufficient because they target acquisitions. This paper will establish some do not account for the effect of removing the munition from meaningful seeker metrics which are applicable to a wide the battlefield if it fails to reject a clutter object or nonvariety of autonomous searching munitions. It will then target vehicle. Further, FAR implementation in many establish a relationship between these metrics and analytical current engagement level effectiveness models do not allow expressions for mission success. Although the analytic the seeker to reject the false target; by definition if it sees a expressions will be limited to two specific scenarios, a false target, it engages it. For these reasons, meaningful discussion of their relation to more general Monte Carlo metrics must be defined for wide area search munitions, based effectiveness models will be presented. Finally, and consistent procedures for incorporating these metrics results for a specific scenario will be used to highlight an into effectiveness models should be developed. abbreviated seeker requirements flow down analysis for a wide area search munition. The problem being considered is that of a wide area search munition looking for a single target, while simultaneously trying to reject false targets that appear in